published on June 21, 2024 in corga

How will Knicks perform without Mitchell Robinson?

Tom Thibodeau does not toy with his players’ routines. It’s why the New York Knicks head coach went the less obvious route when replacing the injured Mitchell Robinson.

Robinson will undergo surgery on his left ankle, the team announced Monday and will miss at least 8-to-10 weeks. The injury, which the big man sustained during Friday’s loss to the Boston Celtics, comes at a wretched time for Robinson, who is playing his best basketball.

Never has Robinson defended the paint better. Never has he been more disciplined. Never has he forced so many turnovers. Never has he been a hungrier on the glass.

Now, the Knicks will try to survive without a player who is essential to their identity. And in Monday’s 136-130 win against the Toronto Raptors, life without Robinson began with his backup, Isaiah Hartenstein, on the bench.

Instead of slotting each center up one spot, Thibodeau placed Jericho Sims, the usual third-string center who had played only 25 minutes all season entering Monday’s game, into the first unit.

Thibodeau has pulled moves like this before, such as when he elects to keep Immanuel Quickley with the second unit on evenings he could justify starting the feisty guard. Quickley has caught a rhythm off the bench — as has Hartenstein. And Thibodeau likes keeping things that work well in place.

But the choice to start Sims, who played 21 minutes against the Raptors compared to 27 for Hartenstein, also can mess with how the Knicks begin games.

Sims gives the Knicks more defensive versatility than Hartenstein does. Thibodeau trusts him to switch on the perimeter. But Hartenstein tops him in most other aspects of the game, including with his ball skills and rim protection.

Last season, the Knicks starters got throttled when Sims ran with the first unit — outscored by nearly 11 points per 100 possessions, according to Cleaning the Glass. On Monday, the starters shot 60 percent from the field and made 7 of 12 3-pointers … and still got outscored 47-45 during their minutes.

Hartenstein closed the game for the Knicks, which will presumably become the norm with Robinson out. New York did not go small at any point. And chances are, that won’t change. Thibodeau prefers to play with a paint-protecting big man, and he can still do so with Hartenstein and Sims.

But because Hartenstein came off the bench, his rotations were clunky. Just to get him to 27 minutes, Thibodeau subbed Hartenstein into the game with approximately five minutes to go in the third quarter. He played for 17 consecutive minutes until Thibodeau finally pulled him with 15 seconds remaining in regulation.

It’s one thing to use Quickley, a guard with burst, that way. But centers normally don’t play such long stretches. Of course, if Thibodeau wants to use Hartenstein off the bench, yet keep his playing time high, this is a consequence.

Hartenstein finished the win over the Raptors with 11 points, eight rebounds, two steals and a block. Sims finished with two points and seven rebounds.

A serious injury to Robinson means there is lots more to discuss than just who starts at center. Here are nine more thoughts on the Knicks without Robinson:

The big three

There are three big reasons for the Knicks’ jump in defensive success this season: They force turnovers. They do it without fouling, a rare combination. And they gobble up most rebounds.

The main man behind pulling off all three of those elements is now injured.

Many of the Knicks’ takeaways come after the ball has hit the paint. A dribbler approaches Robinson’s outstretched arms and pauses as others engulf him in the paint. The Knicks have taken away the middle well this season, rushing passes or forcing guys to lose their handles. That starts with Robinson, who averages more steals than any other big man in the NBA. He’s in the top 10 in deflections, too.

Meanwhile, Robinson isn’t hacking nearly as much as usual. His fouls are at a career low. And for all the well-deserved talk about Robinson’s insatiable offensive rebounding, he’s a giant part of the Knicks’ work on the defensive glass, as well. New York leads the league in offensive-rebound rate and is second in defensive-rebound rate.

It’s no coincidence the Knicks struggled in these three elements against the Raptors, who dropped 130 points on them.

Toronto turned it over only 10 times; it took 30 free throws; and it recovered 17 offensive rebounds, 12 in the first half.

It will take time to figure out how to play without Robinson, who has helped that identity come to form.

All-defense is out

For the past month and a half, it seemed as if the new NBA All-Defensive team rules were slanted for Robinson. No longer were there two guards, forwards and a center on each team. For the first time, all-defensive teams are positionless, which means voters can load up on centers for the 10 spots.

For 20 games, Robinson played like someone due for his first-ever defensive accolades. But he can now consider that possibility gone — and it’s because another new rule will make him ineligible to garner any postseason award.

Starting this season, a player must participate in at least 65 games to maintain eligibility. The surgery ensures Robinson will fall far short of that threshold. Any award will have to wait until 2025.

The rebounding

Knicks fans got a taste Monday night of what it feels like when forcing a miss isn’t all that matters for a defense. The Raptors corraled their clanks. It’s demoralizing — and it’s what Robinson, who leads the NBA in offensive rebounding, has done all season. For one night, it was the Knicks whose fingers were sticky.

But as important as Robinson is, it’s not like New York’s work on the glass should become incapable now.

The Knicks grab 73.6 percent of available defensive rebounds when Robinson isn’t on the floor this season, according to Cleaning the Glass. For context, if that number belonged to a team, it would place ninth in the NBA. Meanwhile, production on the other side has been even better. New York’s offensive rebound rate with Robinson on the bench is 31.9 percent, which would place third in the NBA if it belonged to a team.

Robinson is the Knicks’ best rebounder. Heck, there’s an argument that he’s the best rebounder in the NBA right now. But this is a team of feisty boarders. Each of the Knicks’ regular rotation players, save for Jalen Brunson and Quentin Grimes, is an above-average rebounder for his position. Some, such as Julius Randle and Josh Hart, are elite in their positions. Guards like Quickley, Hart and Donte DiVincenzo are especially adept at chasing down long boards.

If the rebounding plummets to the bottom of the league, something has gone wrong. Robinson is the best of the best, but the Knicks employ others who know how to fight on the glass, too.

Another lineup change?

Might Robinson’s surgery lead to a lineup change at a position other than center — such as Grimes re-entering the first unit?

The Robinson injury eliminates the Knicks’ best defender from the equation. Meanwhile, benching Grimes, which Thibodeau did a game before, removed the group’s best perimeter defender from the starting lineup. It means the first unit is now without its two most important defenders — one because of bad luck and another because of choice.

Grimes is balling out during his two games off the bench, finally receiving the touches and shots he couldn’t find alongside Brunson, Randle and Barrett. He went for 19 points on 5-of-7 3-point shooting and also closed the game Monday against the Raptors. Especially considering how comfortable he appears with the reserves, there is no reason to make a change right now.

But the defense has also struggled lately. DiVincenzo is more solid guarding off the ball than he is on it. If dribblers or cutters are blowing by the Knicks’ perimeter players and Robinson isn’t behind them to clean up, maybe Thibodeau returns to an old-school look just to help the defense.

Habits changing

When Robinson sets a screen for Brunson and then dives to the rim, he’s more of a decoy. Brunson rarely passes to the roller in pick-and-rolls, and Robinson is no exception. But with Robinson out, and with Brunson (presumably) playing more minutes with Hartenstein, whose ball skills are superior, maybe that trend changes.

Late in the game Monday, the Raptors trapped Brunson, who normally outlets the basketball in those situations to a teammate on the opposite side of the court. But in this instance, he flipped it to Hartenstein, who is capable of making a play for himself or a teammate off the dribble.

The two also pulled off this pick-and-roll shortly after Hartenstein entered the game in the first quarter.

We rarely see that type of bounce pass from Brunson. Hartenstein brings it out in him.

Of course, those two won’t maximize their minutes together if Hartenstein continues to come off the bench with Sims in the first unit.

Watch your fouls

In moments, Thibodeau could have no choice but to go small.

Hartenstein and Sims both boast a trait that’s common in backup centers but not ideal in a starter: They foul a lot. Hartenstein is hacking 5.5 guys per 36 minutes. Sims in his three-year career averages 4.2 fouls per 36. If one or both guys get into foul trouble, the Knicks might have to look elsewhere.

Some of the fouling is strategic. Backup centers like Hartenstein know their playing time is capped. They also understand their roles are to be pests. They can become a tinge more aggressive on defense knowing they won’t play more than 18 of 20 minutes. Compiling four fouls isn’t such a big deal if it means playing a style that prevents bucket after bucket.

Now, this provides an element to monitor, especially with Hartenstein, who will play in the most important moments. He does his best to contest everything and is strong while rising straight up, using verticality to obstruct layups and dunks. Hartenstein has no shame about getting jammed on. But these actions can all lead to fouls. Does he dial back his aggressiveness now that he knows Robinson is not around, meaning he has to stay on the floor for longer? If so, how does it affect his effectiveness?

Getting defensive

We should touch on Robinson’s all-defensive case again, because he deserves his flowers this season, even if he can’t now receive them in the form of an award.

Robinson leads all NBA big men in steals and is top 10 in deflections. He has stopped caring about blocks, no longer leaping after shooters he has no chance at swatting, leaving the glass vulnerable to offensive rebounds or leaving himself liable to fouling.

The fouls are down. More down than ever. He’s averaging only 2.3 per 36 minutes. Among the NBA’s 70 qualifying centers, not one is hacking less often than Robinson. When he’s on the floor, the Knicks’ foul rate plunges more than seven percentage points.

Teams are shooting unusually low against the Knicks from floater range because Robinson walls off the lane that leads to the basket and inspires panicky half-layups/half-tear drops.

“I’m a 7-footer,” Robinson said earlier this season. “If you finish over me, congrats to you.”

I discussed Robinson’s all-defensive case last week on my podcast Katz and Shoot and while guesting on Zach Lowe’s The Lowe Post, when Lowe and I ran through our early-season award candidates.

The Minnesota Timberwolves’ Rudy Gobert is the runaway NBA Defensive Player of the Year leader right now, but Robinson was in the conversation for an all-defensive appearance. Other players I considered for the wide-ranging list were (in no particular order) Herb Jones, Anthony Davis, Brook Lopez, OG Anunoby, Jrue Holiday, Bam Adebayo, Evan Mobley, Jalen Suggs and Jaden McDaniels (who may come upon a missed games issue, too).

A test for Knicks

The Knicks will have to figure out life without Robinson quickly. If they don’t, things could get ugly. The Toronto matchup was their easiest one for the rest of the calendar year.

They play in Utah on Wednesday, the final time in 2023 that they face a current sub-.500 squad. Ten consecutive games against teams 12-10 or better follow. Seven of those are on the road.

Other options?

The Knicks roster employs the maximum of 15 players, which means they would have to release someone if they wanted to sign another center to help a Robinson-less squad. DaQuan Jeffries, Dylan Windler and Ryan Arcidiacono are all on non-guaranteed contracts. The Knicks also could release a player on a two-way deal to sign a big man there. Currently, all three of their two-way guys are perimeter players.

There aren’t many options on the open market, though. Taj Gibson, a Thibodeau staple, comes to mind after the Washington Wizards recently let him go. P.J. Tucker isn’t playing for the LA Clippers and, though he’s not a conventional center, has played plenty of five throughout his career and is the type of bruiser who would fit in with the Knicks’ culture.

As we receive more evidence about how the Knicks perform without Robinson, we’ll get a better idea about if they should sign someone or trade for help.

(Photo of Mitchell Robinson: Elsa / Getty Images)

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